Shifting Poll Numbers Signal Growing Discontent with Trump-Led GOP
Recent polls reveal a significant decline in Republican support under former President Donald Trump, raising concerns ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Early indicators suggest that negative public opinion surrounding Trump’s policies—such as the implementation of tariffs and a series of controversial executive orders—could lead to a broader political shift if left unaddressed.
This erosion of support isn’t just a Trump problem—it has major implications for Republicans in Congress. With only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, losing just seven seats could cost the GOP control of the lower chamber in 2026.
Key Poll Insights: April 2025
A new poll conducted on April 16 by RMG Research (founded by conservative pollster Scott Rasmussen) for Napolitan News Service surveyed 1,000 registered voters. The results showed:
- 48% would vote for the Democrat on their congressional ballot
- 44% would vote for the Republican
When accounting for voters who lean Democratic or Republican, support shifted to:
- 50% Democratic
- 45% Republican
This represents a 7-point swing since February—a dramatic reversal from just before Trump’s inauguration, when Republicans led 51% to 44%.
The poll carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
Public Trust Erodes on Key Issues
The same April survey found that:
- 42% of respondents trust Democrats more than Republicans on inflation.
- Only 38% trust Republicans more than Democrats on the same issue.
In another poll released on April 13, Republicans were viewed as less trustworthy than Democrats regarding the nation’s finances—for the first time since May 2021.
A CNBC poll of 1,000 Americans highlighted Trump’s declining approval on economic matters:
- 43% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy
- 55% disapprove—marking the first time Trump has received a net negative economic rating in a CNBC poll.
Expert Commentary: What Analysts Are Saying
William F. Hall, adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University, told Newsweek:
“Given the extremely negative ratings experienced by a Republican-led administration, it appears highly likely the 2026 midterm elections will result in a significant Democratic victory. Negative public sentiment spans every major policy area—economy, employment, inflation, and general national outlook—indicating widespread dissatisfaction.”
What’s Next: The Road to 2026
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, political analysts expect public opinion to remain fluid. Both parties will need to respond strategically to shifting voter sentiment in order to secure or maintain power.